While this question is probably more suited for a statistics prof to answer i am wondering when a trend is actually a trend (compared to just mere chance) and worth betting on? i realize in any probability problem standard deviation and the central limit thereom play a major part in finding a statistical accuracy for the chance of an outcome to happen. Yet i wonder what percentage does something have to hit at before you would bet it. and how many games would you say should be looked at before putting value to the trend? for instance if something happened ten times in the last year and in nine occurances a certain team a won, would you consider that a good trend? or perhaps over the course of 165 football games a certain team covered 65% of the time would that be a valuable trend?
In wayne allen root's book, "The Zen of Gambling", he states that only generic trends work for him and he defines generic trends as, " trends that apply to any team (not a specific team) in certain historical situations." Root then goes on to list trends that he believes are substantial to each corresponding sport. For example, in college football one of root's theories is, "The Perfection Doesn't Last Theory." In this theory root writes "look for undefeated college football teams that start the season undefeated at 5-0, or 6-0, or 7-0, to finally lose their first game, then wager against them in the very next game." I personally did the research on this situation and found that there was 118 occurances of this theory over the past twelve seasons, (ie.1992-2005) and teams FAILED TO COVER in this situation 60% of the time. I realize as a sports bettor that this is a winning proposition but i can only wonder how much of this is due to standard deviation and will this perhaps even out over the next twelve seasons?
What do you think? when do you bet a trend? or when is a trend actually a trend and not due to random chance? i hope this is not too confusing?
thanks
In wayne allen root's book, "The Zen of Gambling", he states that only generic trends work for him and he defines generic trends as, " trends that apply to any team (not a specific team) in certain historical situations." Root then goes on to list trends that he believes are substantial to each corresponding sport. For example, in college football one of root's theories is, "The Perfection Doesn't Last Theory." In this theory root writes "look for undefeated college football teams that start the season undefeated at 5-0, or 6-0, or 7-0, to finally lose their first game, then wager against them in the very next game." I personally did the research on this situation and found that there was 118 occurances of this theory over the past twelve seasons, (ie.1992-2005) and teams FAILED TO COVER in this situation 60% of the time. I realize as a sports bettor that this is a winning proposition but i can only wonder how much of this is due to standard deviation and will this perhaps even out over the next twelve seasons?
What do you think? when do you bet a trend? or when is a trend actually a trend and not due to random chance? i hope this is not too confusing?
thanks